Long Term View on Silver – Weekly Chart – Bubble Mania Map $SLV

 

 

 

Silver on a Weekly Chart – Fibonacci Analysis

Long Term view Silver Weekly

 

Fibonacci Sequence

{0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, 4181, 6765}

These values and the ratio / percentages between specific numbers appear to come up in systems such as markets.

Fibonacci relationships – Source: Wikipedia: Elliott Wave Principle

R. N. Elliott’s analysis of the mathematical properties of waves and patterns eventually led him to conclude that “The Fibonacci Summation Series is the basis of The Wave Principle”. Numbers from the Fibonacci sequence surface repeatedly in Elliott wave structures, including motive waves (1, 3, 5), a single full cycle (8 waves), and the completed motive (89 waves) and corrective (55 waves) patterns. Elliott developed his market model before he realized that it reflects the Fibonacci sequence. “When I discovered The Wave Principle action of market trends, I had never heard of either the Fibonacci Series or the Pythagorean Diagram”.

The Fibonacci sequence is also closely connected to the Golden ratio (1.618). Practitioners commonly use this ratio and related ratios to establish support and resistance levels for market waves, namely the price points which help define the parameters of a trend. See Fibonacci retracement.

Finance professor Roy Batchelor and researcher Richard Ramyar, a former Director of the United Kingdom Society of Technical Analysts and Head of UK Asset Management Research at Reuters Lipper, studied whether Fibonacci ratios appear non-randomly in the stock market, as Elliott’s model predicts. The researchers said the “idea that prices retrace to a Fibonacci ratio or round fraction of the previous trend clearly lacks any scientific rationale”. They also said “there is no significant difference between the frequencies with which price and time ratios occur in cycles in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and frequencies which we would expect to occur at random in such a time series”.

Robert Prechter replied to the Batchelor–Ramyar study, saying that it “does not challenge the validity of any aspect of the Wave Principle…it supports wave theorists’ observations,” and that because the authors had examined ratios between prices achieved in filtered trends rather than Elliott waves, “their method does not address actual claims by wave theorists”.The Socionomics Institute also reviewed data in the Batchelor–Ramyar study, and said these data show “Fibonacci ratios do occur more often in the stock market than would be expected in a random environment”.

Example of the Elliott Wave Principle and the Fibonacci relationship

The GBP/JPY currency chart gives an example of a fourth wave retracement apparently halting between the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracements of a completed third wave. The chart also highlights how the Elliott Wave Principle works well with other technical analysis tendencies as prior support (the bottom of wave-1) acts as resistance to wave-4. The wave count depicted in the chart would be invalidated if GBP/JPY moves above the wave-1 low.

 

Bubble Mania Chart – Road Map

Bubble Mania Chart – Roadmap

It is our belief the silver market is exiting the bear trap stage.  The large scale move that gold / silver bugs are expecting, if it were to happen, our guess is it would be in 2017.  However, it is likely that prices will stabilize, and continue steadily up for the next few years. Pulls backs to $26 could be in the works as well, but we don’t expect much lower than that.